CFL Week Ten

Last Week's Results

I went 3-1, with my only blemish was picking the Argos to win over the Eskimos. I was, however, surprised at how narrowly Montréal and BC won their games. Overall record for the year: 19-13.

This Week's Games

Friday

BC at Montréal This may be the game of the year so far. Both teams are playing extremely well right now. The Lions D has been dominant and the offence has done just well enough for the Lions to win. And right now, that's all the offence has to do. The ageless AC has reverted to the form that is expected of him, after coming out of the gate slowly (for him). The Als' O-line had some trouble (once again) with the Tiger Cat pass rush last week. Given how aggressive the Lions pass rush has been all year, AC will have to be at his best and maximise the use of Brandon Whittaker coming out of the backfield.  BC, on the strength of their defence by 3.

Sunday

Winnipeg at Saskatchewan And now, we have the mirror opposite of Friday night's game. The Green Riders have lost 5 straight and the circus is in town in Winnipeg, with Joe Mack firing Paul LaPolice after the Bombers finally started looking like a football team. The Bombers stifled the Lions offence last week-end and almost pulled an upset. The Riders, especially on offence, looked dispirited against the Stamps. Darien Durant looks right now like he firmly belongs in the lower tier of CFL QBs (with Joey Elliott and Steven Jyles).  Bombers by 3.

Labour Day Monday

Toronto at Hamilton The Argo offence is slumping. They haven't looked good/productive/threatening since before the bye week and, even then, they had scraped just enough together to have won a few games, mostly because of a surprisingly good D. I have mentioned it before and will repeat myself: they are missing at least one, if not two, accomplished receivers. I am not sure if Rambo and Mann are the solution. I wonder what it would take to pry Fred Stamps away from the Eskimos? Ti-Cats by a TD.

Edmonton at Calgary The Esks, a week after getting decimated by AC and the Als, bounced back and stifled the Argos last week. Kerry Joseph was just effective enough in generating some yardage and scoring for the Esks to win behind the D's effort. That is pretty much the Eskimos' season story. The Stamps' season story? I have no clue: inconsistency, perhaps?  I'll take the Stamps, by 5, because I cannot see the Esks offence being effective two weeks in a row.


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CFL Week Nine

Last week's results:

The only game I called correctly was the BC win over Saskatchewan.

Last week's record: 1-3.  Overall record: 16-12.

This week's games:

Thursday

Hamilton (3-4) at Montréal (4-3)

AC and a short-handed Montréal offence dismantled the Eskimos defence last week.  The Ti-Cats made the Bombers look like world-beaters, as they looked disorganised on defence (allowing 400+ yards in the air) and on offence.  How a 37-year-old veteran quarterback can fumble the ball 4 times (3 lost) in a game is quite simply beyond me.  Henry Burris is suffering those kind of lapses at this stage in his career?  I am baffled. With Richardson and Whittaker back, AC will be giving the Ti-Cat defence fits, a Ti-Cat defence which could not contain Joey Elliott.

Als by 12.

Friday

BC (5-2) at Winnipeg (2-5)

The Bombers looked good last week against the Ti-Cat, playing their best game of the year.  Joey Elliott finally gave the team some worthwhile production at QB (400+yards throwing), spreading the wealth amongst a very strong core of 5 receivers.  On the other side of the ball, Winnipeg is dressing its starting 12 on defence for the first time this year. and should be fired up.  The only problem?  They are playing the Lions.  Joey will have significantly more trouble moving the ball against a Lions defence that is just humming along right now, with no TDs allowed in their past three games.  Lulay and the offence is moving the ball well enough (3rd overall in net yards); however, a lot of drives seem to end up in field goals instead of majors.  With the way the D is playing, that is enough.

BC by 10.

Saturday

Calgary (3-4) at Saskatchewan (3-4)

The Roughriders have lost their last four.  Darien Durant has looked ineffective of late; he needs to prove whether he is a top-line CFL QB.  He has not looked like one this year.  After a big game in the season opener in Hamilton, even when the Green Riders were successful, he has looked like a very conservative QB, or, perhaps, like a QB who is not comfortable playing within the conservative offensive scheme that seems to have been implemented in Regina this year.  For the Stamps, Kevin Glenn really only has had one bad game (OK, and a really, really bad 3 minutes or so at the end of the Week 4 loss against the Als) since taking over the reigns from an injured Drew Tate, and that was during a Stamps victory over the Ti-Cats, where the bulk of the offence was generated by Jon Cornish.  That being said, the Stampeders have looked inconsistent all year.

Stamps by 3.

Monday

Edmonton (4-3) at Toronto (4-3)

Edmonton's defence was embarrassed against the Als last week.  It has to be too early in the season for fatigue to be setting in, even though they have spent a lot of time on the field, courtesy of an ineffective Eskimos offence.  Either the D has had a sudden loss of confidence, or last week was a one-shot deal, due to Anthony Calvillo being other-worldly, and it will bounce back to the form they showed in their first 6 games (e.g., hard hits, big plays, few points allowed).  As for the Esks offence, Cory Boyd and his 9 yards or no Cory Boyd and his 9 yards, it is still sputtering.  That Matt Nicholls has not taken any significant reps this year is unexplainable.  He may not be ready for the full-time job, but cannot be much worse than Jyles or Joseph.  While he should be getting some game time experience, maybe this would not be the right game for it, given how strong the Argo D has looked this year.

This should be low-scoring affair, with the Argos winning by 3. 

CFL Week Eight

Last week's results:

- I had Hamilton beating Calgary by 5; the Ti-Cats did not look like the team that had won its past three games.

- I had the Eskimos beating the Riders by 3 'provided the defence scored a TD'.  They won by 8 and the D did, in fact, score a major.

Last week: 1-1.  Season record: 15-9.

This week's games:

Thursday

Hamilton (3-3) at Winnipeg (1-5)

I severely over-estimated both teams prior to their last games.  Winnipeg will be starting Joey Elliott at QB.  Evidently, Alex Brink was shocked at being by-passed; he may want to look at the film from the Bombers' last game against Montréal.  They offence was listless and dispassioned for the first three quarters, only showing signs of life in the final quarter, after the game was out-of-reach.  Elliott should have been in at the half.  The Bombers have a good core of receivers (Edwards, Matthews and Denmark); it will be up to Elliott to establish chemistry with the group, which has been lacking more often than not this year. While the Ti-Cat defence stifled Kevin Glenn in their last game against Calgary, they let Jon Cornish run almost at will.  It augurs well for Chad Simpson.  On the other side of the ball, Winnipeg is getting some of its walking wounded back, as defensive backs Alex Stuber and Ian Logan will dress, which should help a defence that is ranked last against the pass and second-last against the rush. Henry Burris, after looking all-world for three weeks looked very ordinary against the Stamps last week.  His top target (Fantuz) will not play on Friday. Despite this, he should be able to exploit the Bombers' D; however, he needs to run with the ball more (only one carry for nine yards last week) to effectively throw a wrench in the opposing defensive alignments.

Ti-Cats by 7.

Friday

Montréal (3-3) at Edmonton (4-2)

The Als may be missing two of their top offensive assets, as both Jamel Richardson and Brandon Whittaker are listed as doubtful for Friday night's game.  They are facing arguably the most aggressive defence in the CFL, one that doesn't yield many points and comes up with huge turnovers.  As good as Anthony Calvillo still his, given the two holes in his offence and an Als' offensive line that has looked porous at times this year, I do not expect the Als to generate much scoring.  As I have written before, the Esks offence had scored enough points to have their D keep them in games this year.  This will also be the Esks debut for Cory Boyd, which gives the Esks another much-needed weapon on offence.  Maybe Eric Tillman figures that at the more often Steven Jyles hands off to Hugh Charles and Boyd, the less he will have to try to pass.

Eskimos by 6.

Saturday

Toronto (3-3) at Calgary (3-3)

I missed the Civic Holiday game between the Argos and the Lions (the first CFL game I have missed this year), but 9 points on offence speaks for itself.  The Argos response was to replace Boyd by Chad Kackert (evidently in great part due to Boyd's lack of blocking acumen) and juggle the offensive line.  This may give Ricky Ray much needed additional protection in the pocket.  Calgary has allowed the third least net yards this year (the Argos are second);  even with the additional protection, Ray may be challenged to move the ball with regularity.  Kevin Glenn had an awful game last week against the Ti-Cats (15-for-28, 141 yards); it will not get easier against the Argo D.  He has to find his receivers like he did in the 3 previous weeks for the Stamps to win.

A bit too much turmoil in Argo-land this week, so I will go with the home team.  Stamps by 3.

Sunday

Saskatchewan (3-3) at BC (4-2)

Broken record time:  BC is the class of the league.  The Lions' D has not allowed a TD in the past two games, which obviously takes a lot of pressure off the offence.  Saskatchewan is coming into BC Place having lost their last three.  There seems to be something missing on offence, which may be taking a tad too conservative approach for the CFL; Darien Durant has not put up huge numbers this year.  The Riders seem to be missing a deep threat.

Lions by 10.

Different Perspectives on Canada's Performance at the London Olympics

If you watched any of the Olympics, you are aware that both the Canadian Olympic Committee (COC) and the broadcasting consortium (CTV, TSN, Sportsnet, RDS, Canal V et al.) as well as most of the mainstream Canadian media kept showing us medal standings by overall medal counts.  By this measure, the 18 overall medals won by Canadian athletes (one gold, five silver and 12 bronze) placed Canada in 13th place overall in the medal standings.  This was roughly in line with the expectations of the COC, which wanted a top 12 finish in the medal standings.

Now, of course, that is the medal standings for the overall number of medals.  If we look at the medal standings on the official London Olympic web site, Canada sits in 36th place, as they rank the countries first by the number of gold medals.  This is a little far from the top 12 finish hoped for by the COC and from the 13th place finish trumpeted by the mainstream media.  A prime example of the self-congratulatory puff pieces that outline the same ready-made excuses (e.g., Canada is really a winter sport country; bronze is not bad; who cares about medals anyway; top 8 standings are cool; etc.) can be found in an article penned by James Mirtle in Monday's Globe and Mail, 'There's No Shame in Celebrating Bronze'.  Frankly, this seems like it should have been the slogan for Canada's Summer Games performance.

Alternative Medal Standings

I figured that rather than settling for celebrating bronze, or Canada's world-dominance in trampoline-hoping, a better way of measuring Canada's performance at the London Olympics could be found by looking at some basic metrics.  I was looking for a count of athletes by country, which could give a picture of the efficiency of Canada's sizeable athlete delegation to the Games.  In doing so, I stumbled upon The Guardian's Alternative Medal Standings.  The Guardian, a UK newspaper, presents four different medal rankings:

1.- A straight medal count, with the medals being weighted. Golds are worth 3, silvers 2 and bronzes 1.  According to web site, this is the same ranking that the International Olympic Committee uses.  Using this approach, Canada ranks 19th, tied with Iran.

2.- Medals weighted by population (and valued as above).  Using this approach, which benefits very small countries (Grenada, Jamaica and the Bahamas are the top three) Canada comes in 45th. (Random comparisons: the USA come in at 47th, Japan comes in at 50th and the UK at 20th.)

3.- Medals weighted by GDP (and valued as above), where Canada comes in 65th. (The USA came immediately next at 66th, Japan came in at 70th, the UK at 40th.)  I am not sure how much to put into this, as countries with small and/or weak economies are at the top of the standings (Grenada, Jamaica, North Korea are the top three.)

4.- Medals weighted by team size (and valued as above).  The Guardian found that team size was somewhat correlated both to population size and GDP, which is not terribly surprising.  Canada comes in 63rd. (Iran, with whom Canada was tied under the points approach in 1, came in 3rd in this category.  The USA came in 5th; the UK came in 13th and Japan came in 21st.  At 63rd, Canada is in the same neighbourhood as India, Estonia, Kuwait and Tunisia.)

Of note, The Guardian produced these tables in partnership with the UK's Royal Statistical Society and four statisticians from Imperial College in London.  The methodology is outlined here and the data can be downloaded.  It is well worth checking out for those of you with a bit of a numbers bent or even if you do not.  (There is no complicated math; it is mostly about weighted sums and the like.)

Efficiency of Canadian Delegation

While these results are very interesting (and fun!), I was still wondering where Canada stood in regards to medals generated by its fairly large Olympic delegation.  Using The Guardian's data, I wanted to look at two elements: how did Canada's medal count compare to similar-sized delegations and where Canada ranked in medals per athlete, without using the 3-2-1 values used above.

Canada sent 279 athletes to London, the 12th largest delegation.  To compare Canada's results to similar-sized delegations, let us look at delegations that were roughly +/- 20 per cent the size of Canada's.   This gives seven countries as comparables

Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot. Medals
France	335	11	11	12	34
Japan	303	7	14	17	38
Spain	289	3	10	4	17
Italy	281	8	9	11	28
Canada	279	1	5	12	18
Brazil	266	3	5	9	17
South Korea	255	13	8	7	28
Ukraine	236	6	5	9	20

Canada's medal haul was thus in line with Spain, Brazil and Ukraine (the smallest delegation of the eight) with 17 to 20 medals and lower than the other four, by at least 10 medals, which seems significant (over 50 per cent).  We are not even going to compare gold medals.

Next, I wanted to look at the efficiency of the delegation.  Canada produced 18 medals for 279 athletes, or 6.45 medals per 100 athletes. The most efficient nation at the Olympics was Botswana, which sent 4 athletes to the Olympics and won a silver medal (Nijel Amel in the men's 800 metre run), a ratio of 25 medals per 100 athletes.  The second most efficient country was Jamaica (12 medals, 50 athletes) at 24 medals per 100 athletes, followed by China (23.45 per 100 athletes), Iran (22.64 per 100 athletes) and Kenya (22 per 100 athletes).

Canada's 'efficiency' (6.45 medals per 100 athletes) ranks it 51st overall and puts it in the following neighbourhood:

Rank	Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot.        Medals	Medals      Per  100
48	Malaysia	30	0	1	1	2	6,67
49	New Zealand	196	5	3	5	13	6,63
50	Mexico	106	1	3	3	7	6,60
51	Canada	279	1	5	12	18	6,45
52	Brazil	266	3	5	9	17	6,39
53	Tajikistan	16	0	0	1	1	6,25
54	Uganda	16	1	0	0	1	6,25
55	Norway	65	2	1	1	4	6,15
56	Estonia	33	0	1	1	2	6,06

This is a mixture of small, medium and large delegations;  it is difficult to draw any conclusions other than, well, Canada is 51st.

If we eliminate smaller teams from the comparison and look simply at countries that sent 50 athletes or more to the Games (55 countries), Canada ranks 32nd.  Of note, two of these countries, Austria (73 athletes) and Nigeria (53 athletes) collected no medals.

The next logical step in this analysis would be to take team result out of the equation.  Canada only qualified for two team sports, Women's Soccer and Women's Basketball.  This means that the bulk of the team (240 or so athletes) participated in individual (or synchronised) events.  This would increase our medal efficiency rating. It would be interesting to know how this would affect our ranking.  (I have no clue what to do with the 8+1-person rowing crews; they are not generally considered 'team sports', that I know of anyway.  Also some of these athletes may have competed in other rowing categories.)

Finally, one of the ready-made explanations as to why expectations for Canada in the Summer Olympiad should be tempered is that Canada is a winter sport country.  The accepted logic seems to be that Canada's results should not be compared to all countries participating in the Summer Olympics because Canada splits its efforts, or even concentrates its efforts, on the Winter Olympics.  Then let us compare Canada to the other countries that finished in the top 12 for the medal count at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics.  The 12 countries are, once again, ranked by medals earned in London per 100 athletes:

Overall Rank	Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot.            Medals	Medals         Per 100
3	China	371	38	27	22	87	23,45
8	USA	531	46	29	29	104	19,59
10	Russia	435	24	25	33	82	18,85
20	Germany	395	11	19	14	44	11,14
22	Netherlands	182	6	6	8	20	10,99
22	South Korea	255	13	8	7	28	10,98
25	France	335	11	11	12	34	10,15
51	Canada	279	1	5	12	18	6,45
55	Norway	65	2	1	1	4	6,15
59	Sweden	140	1	4	3	8	5,71
72	Switzerland	106	2	2	0	4	3,77
86	Austria	70	0	0	0	0	0,00

Given that we should probably not be comparing Canada to the first four countries in that list, that historically have been powerhouses in both the Summer and Winter Games.  (While China may not have 'historically' been a powerhouse, it is developing in one.)  Of the remaining 8 countries, Canada ranks 4th both in medal count and medal efficiency.   The one interesting comparison is with the Netherlands, which won roughly the same number of medals as Canada, with a team that was roughly two-thirds the size.

Possible Conclusions

Canada sent the 12th largest team to London and collected the 13th most medals.  By that measure, Canada's showing at the Summer Games has been described as successful in the mainstream Canadian media.  However, a proper evaluation of Canada's performance should go beyond this simple, conventional wisdom approach.  If more value is given to gold and silver medals, Canada's standing is lowered, in great part due to the single gold medal it won.  In addition, weighting medal counts by population, GDP or team size provides an interesting way to compare results amongst participating countries, with Canada ranking anywhere from 45th to 65th.

Taking into account the size of the Canadian delegation (and using a very simple formula for efficiency), Canada does not rank very highly in how efficient it is in winning medals (32nd out of 55 countries that sent 50+ athletes to London).  It is also difficult to determine whether there is a greater impact in Canada's efficiency in winning medals in Summer Olympic Games than for other countries who similarly do well in Winter Olympics.

Finally, James Mirtle, in the article linked to above, has raised, whether he intended to or not, one of the central issues in evaluating whether or not Canada has successfully competed in the London Games.  It all depends on the definition of success.  Is the COC heading back to defining success as having athletes realize top-8 finishes and personal bests, or will it build on the 'Own the Podium' program to continue the efforts to identify Canadian athletes that have clear medal hopes?  Was the 'Own the Podium' initiative only spurred by the desire for Canada to have a good showing at the Vancouver Olympics or will it have a legacy?  If so, then one of the principal questions that needs to be answered prior to Rio in 2016 is whether Canada needs to consistently send one of the largest athlete delegation to the Summer Games in order to win only a smattering of medals (including a Gold or two in 'non-traditional' sports).  By now, Canadians athletes should be aspiring for more than the Participaction participation pin...  Hopefully, that will be part of the discussion in the lead-up to 2016.

CFL Week Seven

Last week's results:

- I had Winnipeg beating Montréal, but the Bombers went back to being the team we saw in the first three weeks; i.e., disorganised and ineffective on both sides of the ball.  What a mess of a team.

- I took the Lions over the Argos by a TD; they won by 9.

Last week: 1-1.  Overall 14-8.

Very short takes on this week's games:

Thursday

Calgary (2-3) at Hamilton (3-2)

Calgary has not been able to establish a running game of late and Kevin Glenn looked very ordinary in his last outing against the Lions' defence, arguably the best in the league.  The  Ti-Cat defence has struggled at times this year, so this might get Glenn back on track against his former mates.  On the other side of the ball, Henry Burris has been on fire lately, capitalizing on all the assets at his disposal, starting with Chevon Walker, Andy Fantuz and Chris Williams.  He is spreading the wealth around, as 8 receivers got catches in each of the last two games.  Since Week One when they held Montréal to 10 points, Calgary has surrendered 30+ points to its four subsequent opponents.

This should be a shoot-out at Ivor Wynne.  Hamilton's offence is relatively stronger than the Calgary offence against the respective defences.  Hamilton will win by 5.

Friday

Saskatchewan (3-2) at Edmonton (3-2)

The Riders have lost their last two games even though they had significant third-quarter leads.  This team is clearly not as good as their 3-0 start indicated.  The Rider offence has been all over the map.  They've been explosive in two games, average in a third and anemic in the other two.  Until their last game against the Bombers, where Alex Brink was moving the ball at will at certain times, the Esks defence has been dominant and has come up with big plays and scores.  The Esks offence will never generate much of a threat with their QB tandem (Jyles and Joseph); the last time these two teams met, the Esks scored 1 point, in one of the least exciting games of the CFL season so far.

Unfortunately, I expect a repeat.  This game will be low-scoring.  Edmonton by a FG, assuming they get a least a TD from the return team or the defence.

Random Rant: Why I Effen Hate Effen Weddings

By my reckoning, we are in the Year of Our Lord 2012. Most people I know who are in relationships move in together and, essentially, become common law couples once their relationship seems solid enough to do so. Or, alternately, as a way to reduce rent payments, which is also a very acceptable reason. (Fucken landlords.)

Given that we are in the age of co-habitation, I cannot understand why the tradition of large, expensive weddings still persists. If a couple has been living together for years, why force friends and family to celebrate the fact that they now want to... what? Have a different status on their income tax forms? Sign some courthouse documents? Try to get out of the rut they are in by taking 'the next step', until the rut sets back in? Satisfy their families?

I wonder if there might be another reason. Let us see. Invite enough people to get 100 guests. (You know those secondary and tertiary potential guest lists that every one has to make sure that you get the correct number of guests. Not the guests you want, but the guests you need...[Yes, very tenuous Batman reference...] ) Assume that 74 percent are couples, and 26 percent are single. So 74 x 0.5 + 26 people bring gifts. (And why do couples get away with giving one gift? Cheap fucks.) So in total, our happy couple are getting 63 gifts. Let us assume an average value of, say, $75, which brings us to $4725.

Nice little winfall, doncha think? (Again, especially since you set up your household several years ago...)

And for those of you who say it really is not about the winfall, then why are you registered?

Well?

Yeah, figured you would not have an answer...


Sent wirelessly from my BlackBerry device on the Bell network.
Envoyé sans fil par mon terminal mobile BlackBerry sur le réseau de Bell.

CFL Week Six

Last week's results:

- I had Edmonton over Winnipeg; it is the second week in a row I under-estimated the Bombers.  They may be a better football team than the first three weeks indicated.

- I had Montréal by a FG over Toronto and the opposite happened.

- I accurately predicted Hamilton and BC winning their games, although I thought Calgary would have given the Lions more of a challenge.

- 2-2 for the week; 13-7 for the year.

This week's games:

Friday

Montréal (2-3) at Winnipeg (1-4)

As I said above, Winnipeg has looked like a football team in their past two games, but they are not facing Steven Jyles this week-end.  The Bombers' defence has surrendered the most passing yards in the league and they are facing the top passing quarterback.  This does not augur well, unless they can take advantage of Montréal's porous offensive line and keep Calvillo under pressure. The Bombers' offence was surprising last week, against the strong Eskimo defence.  Alex Brink completed 26 of 38 passes for almost 300 yards.  Montréal is the second worst defence against the pass, so Brink has a chance to build on last week's success.

I expect this game to be high-scoring.  While the Alouettes have looked slightly better than the Bombers so far this year, I will take the home team, by 3.

Monday

BC (3-2) at Toronto (3-2)

The Lions completely destroyed the Stamps last week on both sides of the field, giving notice that they are the team to beat in the CFL this year. Travis Lulay spread the wealth around, hitting five receivers for 4+ receptions each and connecting with another 4. The defence completely muffled Kevin Glenn and a Stamps offence which had moved the ball tremendously well in their previous two games.  For the second week in a row, the Argos played well enough to beat their opponents (the Als in Montréal).  They will have to step it up this week to have a hope of defeating the Lions, as they are much stronger opponents than the Bombers or Als. That being said, a strong argument could be made that these are currently the two best teams in the league.  The Lions have generated the most net yards on offence and given up the least net yards on defence; the Argos are second in each category.  I think the Lions are deeper on offence, with more threats than the Argos.

This should be a great game, with two outstanding QBs facing two really strong defences.  The difference may be that the Lions are deeper on offence, with more threats than the Argos.  Lions by a TD.