Different Perspectives on Canada's Performance at the London Olympics

If you watched any of the Olympics, you are aware that both the Canadian Olympic Committee (COC) and the broadcasting consortium (CTV, TSN, Sportsnet, RDS, Canal V et al.) as well as most of the mainstream Canadian media kept showing us medal standings by overall medal counts.  By this measure, the 18 overall medals won by Canadian athletes (one gold, five silver and 12 bronze) placed Canada in 13th place overall in the medal standings.  This was roughly in line with the expectations of the COC, which wanted a top 12 finish in the medal standings.

Now, of course, that is the medal standings for the overall number of medals.  If we look at the medal standings on the official London Olympic web site, Canada sits in 36th place, as they rank the countries first by the number of gold medals.  This is a little far from the top 12 finish hoped for by the COC and from the 13th place finish trumpeted by the mainstream media.  A prime example of the self-congratulatory puff pieces that outline the same ready-made excuses (e.g., Canada is really a winter sport country; bronze is not bad; who cares about medals anyway; top 8 standings are cool; etc.) can be found in an article penned by James Mirtle in Monday's Globe and Mail, 'There's No Shame in Celebrating Bronze'.  Frankly, this seems like it should have been the slogan for Canada's Summer Games performance.

Alternative Medal Standings

I figured that rather than settling for celebrating bronze, or Canada's world-dominance in trampoline-hoping, a better way of measuring Canada's performance at the London Olympics could be found by looking at some basic metrics.  I was looking for a count of athletes by country, which could give a picture of the efficiency of Canada's sizeable athlete delegation to the Games.  In doing so, I stumbled upon The Guardian's Alternative Medal Standings.  The Guardian, a UK newspaper, presents four different medal rankings:

1.- A straight medal count, with the medals being weighted. Golds are worth 3, silvers 2 and bronzes 1.  According to web site, this is the same ranking that the International Olympic Committee uses.  Using this approach, Canada ranks 19th, tied with Iran.

2.- Medals weighted by population (and valued as above).  Using this approach, which benefits very small countries (Grenada, Jamaica and the Bahamas are the top three) Canada comes in 45th. (Random comparisons: the USA come in at 47th, Japan comes in at 50th and the UK at 20th.)

3.- Medals weighted by GDP (and valued as above), where Canada comes in 65th. (The USA came immediately next at 66th, Japan came in at 70th, the UK at 40th.)  I am not sure how much to put into this, as countries with small and/or weak economies are at the top of the standings (Grenada, Jamaica, North Korea are the top three.)

4.- Medals weighted by team size (and valued as above).  The Guardian found that team size was somewhat correlated both to population size and GDP, which is not terribly surprising.  Canada comes in 63rd. (Iran, with whom Canada was tied under the points approach in 1, came in 3rd in this category.  The USA came in 5th; the UK came in 13th and Japan came in 21st.  At 63rd, Canada is in the same neighbourhood as India, Estonia, Kuwait and Tunisia.)

Of note, The Guardian produced these tables in partnership with the UK's Royal Statistical Society and four statisticians from Imperial College in London.  The methodology is outlined here and the data can be downloaded.  It is well worth checking out for those of you with a bit of a numbers bent or even if you do not.  (There is no complicated math; it is mostly about weighted sums and the like.)

Efficiency of Canadian Delegation

While these results are very interesting (and fun!), I was still wondering where Canada stood in regards to medals generated by its fairly large Olympic delegation.  Using The Guardian's data, I wanted to look at two elements: how did Canada's medal count compare to similar-sized delegations and where Canada ranked in medals per athlete, without using the 3-2-1 values used above.

Canada sent 279 athletes to London, the 12th largest delegation.  To compare Canada's results to similar-sized delegations, let us look at delegations that were roughly +/- 20 per cent the size of Canada's.   This gives seven countries as comparables

Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot. Medals
France	335	11	11	12	34
Japan	303	7	14	17	38
Spain	289	3	10	4	17
Italy	281	8	9	11	28
Canada	279	1	5	12	18
Brazil	266	3	5	9	17
South Korea	255	13	8	7	28
Ukraine	236	6	5	9	20

Canada's medal haul was thus in line with Spain, Brazil and Ukraine (the smallest delegation of the eight) with 17 to 20 medals and lower than the other four, by at least 10 medals, which seems significant (over 50 per cent).  We are not even going to compare gold medals.

Next, I wanted to look at the efficiency of the delegation.  Canada produced 18 medals for 279 athletes, or 6.45 medals per 100 athletes. The most efficient nation at the Olympics was Botswana, which sent 4 athletes to the Olympics and won a silver medal (Nijel Amel in the men's 800 metre run), a ratio of 25 medals per 100 athletes.  The second most efficient country was Jamaica (12 medals, 50 athletes) at 24 medals per 100 athletes, followed by China (23.45 per 100 athletes), Iran (22.64 per 100 athletes) and Kenya (22 per 100 athletes).

Canada's 'efficiency' (6.45 medals per 100 athletes) ranks it 51st overall and puts it in the following neighbourhood:

Rank	Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot.        Medals	Medals      Per  100
48	Malaysia	30	0	1	1	2	6,67
49	New Zealand	196	5	3	5	13	6,63
50	Mexico	106	1	3	3	7	6,60
51	Canada	279	1	5	12	18	6,45
52	Brazil	266	3	5	9	17	6,39
53	Tajikistan	16	0	0	1	1	6,25
54	Uganda	16	1	0	0	1	6,25
55	Norway	65	2	1	1	4	6,15
56	Estonia	33	0	1	1	2	6,06

This is a mixture of small, medium and large delegations;  it is difficult to draw any conclusions other than, well, Canada is 51st.

If we eliminate smaller teams from the comparison and look simply at countries that sent 50 athletes or more to the Games (55 countries), Canada ranks 32nd.  Of note, two of these countries, Austria (73 athletes) and Nigeria (53 athletes) collected no medals.

The next logical step in this analysis would be to take team result out of the equation.  Canada only qualified for two team sports, Women's Soccer and Women's Basketball.  This means that the bulk of the team (240 or so athletes) participated in individual (or synchronised) events.  This would increase our medal efficiency rating. It would be interesting to know how this would affect our ranking.  (I have no clue what to do with the 8+1-person rowing crews; they are not generally considered 'team sports', that I know of anyway.  Also some of these athletes may have competed in other rowing categories.)

Finally, one of the ready-made explanations as to why expectations for Canada in the Summer Olympiad should be tempered is that Canada is a winter sport country.  The accepted logic seems to be that Canada's results should not be compared to all countries participating in the Summer Olympics because Canada splits its efforts, or even concentrates its efforts, on the Winter Olympics.  Then let us compare Canada to the other countries that finished in the top 12 for the medal count at the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics.  The 12 countries are, once again, ranked by medals earned in London per 100 athletes:

Overall Rank	Country	Nbr. Of Athletes	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Tot.            Medals	Medals         Per 100
3	China	371	38	27	22	87	23,45
8	USA	531	46	29	29	104	19,59
10	Russia	435	24	25	33	82	18,85
20	Germany	395	11	19	14	44	11,14
22	Netherlands	182	6	6	8	20	10,99
22	South Korea	255	13	8	7	28	10,98
25	France	335	11	11	12	34	10,15
51	Canada	279	1	5	12	18	6,45
55	Norway	65	2	1	1	4	6,15
59	Sweden	140	1	4	3	8	5,71
72	Switzerland	106	2	2	0	4	3,77
86	Austria	70	0	0	0	0	0,00

Given that we should probably not be comparing Canada to the first four countries in that list, that historically have been powerhouses in both the Summer and Winter Games.  (While China may not have 'historically' been a powerhouse, it is developing in one.)  Of the remaining 8 countries, Canada ranks 4th both in medal count and medal efficiency.   The one interesting comparison is with the Netherlands, which won roughly the same number of medals as Canada, with a team that was roughly two-thirds the size.

Possible Conclusions

Canada sent the 12th largest team to London and collected the 13th most medals.  By that measure, Canada's showing at the Summer Games has been described as successful in the mainstream Canadian media.  However, a proper evaluation of Canada's performance should go beyond this simple, conventional wisdom approach.  If more value is given to gold and silver medals, Canada's standing is lowered, in great part due to the single gold medal it won.  In addition, weighting medal counts by population, GDP or team size provides an interesting way to compare results amongst participating countries, with Canada ranking anywhere from 45th to 65th.

Taking into account the size of the Canadian delegation (and using a very simple formula for efficiency), Canada does not rank very highly in how efficient it is in winning medals (32nd out of 55 countries that sent 50+ athletes to London).  It is also difficult to determine whether there is a greater impact in Canada's efficiency in winning medals in Summer Olympic Games than for other countries who similarly do well in Winter Olympics.

Finally, James Mirtle, in the article linked to above, has raised, whether he intended to or not, one of the central issues in evaluating whether or not Canada has successfully competed in the London Games.  It all depends on the definition of success.  Is the COC heading back to defining success as having athletes realize top-8 finishes and personal bests, or will it build on the 'Own the Podium' program to continue the efforts to identify Canadian athletes that have clear medal hopes?  Was the 'Own the Podium' initiative only spurred by the desire for Canada to have a good showing at the Vancouver Olympics or will it have a legacy?  If so, then one of the principal questions that needs to be answered prior to Rio in 2016 is whether Canada needs to consistently send one of the largest athlete delegation to the Summer Games in order to win only a smattering of medals (including a Gold or two in 'non-traditional' sports).  By now, Canadians athletes should be aspiring for more than the Participaction participation pin...  Hopefully, that will be part of the discussion in the lead-up to 2016.