CFL Week Fourteen

Last Week's Results

While I correctly called the Alouettes and Lions wins, I thought the Als-Argos game would be tighter (the Ricky Ray injury on the Argos' third drive and Swayze Watters' seeming inability to connect on FGs are to blame for that) and the Lions-Esk would not be.  I got the other two games wrong.  That I got the Hamilton-Winnipeg game wrong is no surprise; both teams have been baffling all year.

Record for the week: 2-2.
Record for the year: 30-18.

This Week's Games

Friday

Montréal (8-4) at Hamilton (4-8)

Well, well, look at who is 8-4.  Is it just me, of have the Als done this more quietly than in other seasons?  Maybe we are at the point where we just expect the Als to be this good, but when the season began they did not look to me like a team that would win 8 of their first 12 games.  Now, there is obviously some luck involved, as they had a rather easy time beating the Ricky Ray-less Argos last Sunday.  (And incidentally, the Trent Guy 129-yard missed field goal return was possibly the most exciting football play I have seen live.  He just blew down the field, past the Argo cover team; it has to be one of the quickest return TD ever.) On the other hand, they have survived injuries to key offensive players such as receivers Jamel Richardson, Brandon London and Brian Bratton (3 missed games each) and RB Brandon Whittaker, who is out for the remainder of the season.  As for the Ti-Cats, that they call look all-World two weeks ago in dominating the Eskimos and then get beaten up last week-end by a Blue Bomber team that had looked moribund in previous weeks frustrates me, and I am not even a Ti-Cat fan.  I cannot begin to imagine how George Cortes feels.  For the Ti-Cat offence it obviously comes down to how Henry Burris plays (or maybe it comes down to how inspired he is?  Just asking...) and whether he can figure out the Als defensive schemes.  In his two previous outings against the Als, Burris had a ridiculous 158.3 QB rating and threw for 4 TDs on July 21 (a 39-24 win in Hamilton) and a more pedestrian 88.0 rating in a last minute 31-29 loss on August 23 in Montréal. One Good Hank game; one Bad Hank game.

Als by 7, although Hamilton by 25 would not surprise me.  That is just how this team rolls.


Edmonton (5-7) at Calgary (7-5)

It is the beginning of the Matt Nichols era in Edmonton.  I you are one of my 2 or 3 faithful readers, you will know that I have called for this nearly every week, as Steven Jyles and Kerry Joseph have proven throughout the season to be, well, Steven Jyles and Kerry Joseph.  I suspect that the offence might show some signs of life and potentially feed off the energy that I expect Nichols to bring to the game.  Who knows?  Maybe Fred Stamps will resemble the elite receiver that TSN tries to make us believe he is.  Amazingly, the problem for the Esks might be on the other side of the ball.  After a couple of difficult weeks, the defence bounced back last week to their early season form to bottle up the Lions offence, especially on the Esks side of the field.  However, the Esks D is battling injuries as their D-line has been completely decimated by injuries.  Putting even rudimentary pressure on Stamps QB Kevin Glenn has historically caused him to throw ill-timed interceptions.  No matter how aggressive the Esks secondary plays (the Esks lead the league in interceptions), the  key to the game is whether the injury replacements on the line can both sustain enough pressure on Glenn or stop league-leading rusher Jon Cornish.  It will be tall task.

Calgary by 3 (and I hope Nichols has a strong game.)

Saturday

Toronto (6-6) at Winnipeg (3-9)

Can the Bombers actually play two decent, well-executed football games in a row?  It will greatly help that they will face Jarious Jackson at QB rather than Ricky Ray.  Jackson looked ineffective last week against the Als. With a week's worth of reps with the starting offence, he should be more comfortable this week.  However, even with Ray at the helm, the Argo offence has looked ordinary more often than not this year (5th in net offensive yards); subbing in Jackson will not help.  The kicking game has to be better this week.  Waters missed 2 FGs last week and a third one was botched due to a bad snap.  Instead of scoring 9 points, the Argos were minus 6 due to the missed FG return; that is a 15-point swing in a game that was decided by 21.

So let me see if I have this straight:  two starting CFL QBs went down with injuries last week-end, and neither of them were Buck Pierce?  Has this ever happened before?  Assuming some Vegas casino given us a prop bet on that, what would the odds have been?  Less than astronomical?  What about the odds of Pierce playing two complete games in a row?  Less or more than 50-50?  Toronto does not have an overly aggressive pass rush (last in the league with 16 sacks), so maybe, just perhaps, Buck might luck it out through another entire 60 minutes.  Also, Chris Matthews, after an amazing start to his rookie year, has been relatively MIA since Paul LaPolice got canned (8 receptions for 73 yards and a goose egg last week-end.)  I have a rooting interest in this as I have him in my CFL pool, but I wonder whether a) teams have now adjusted their coverage on him; b) he no longer figures prominently in offensive schemes or c) it is a combination of both.

Bombers by 6; Jackson will have troubles effectively moving the Argo offence.


BC (9-3) at Saskatchewan (6-6)

The Green Riders almost let another win slip away last week, as the Stamps mounted a fourth-quarter comeback.  They seem to be playing better lately; after having lost 5 straight, they are 3*-1 in the last four (*-two of those wins are against the Bombers).  One of the Saskatchewan columnists opined this week that Durant looked once again like an elite QB in the win against the Stamps last week.  I have issues with throwing the word 'elite' around after one good start.  Durant has looked ineffective for most of the season, in part leading me to wonder how many effective starting QBs there are in the CFL right now.  Definitely that camp would include AC, Lulay, Ray and Burris (as inconsistent as he seems often times).  One would most probably have to include Kevin Glenn in that camp, ill-timed interceptions and hiccuppy clock management be damned.  The two-headed Jyles-Joseph monster definitely is not.  This leaves Buck Pierce and Darien Durant.  In my view, Pierce is too brittle to be deemed effective; because of his propensity to get injured, he is an unknown on a nearly play-by-play basis.  This leaves Durant as the outlier.  While he has led his team to two straight Grey Cup appearances, he has not been an effective QB either this year or last.  This leaves us with 5 teams with truly effective QBs; of these, AC is 40 and Burris is 37.

Back to the game at hand, BC finds ways to win, on both sides of the ball.  Lions by 10.