CFL Week Five

Last week's results:

- I did not think the Toronto-Winnipeg game would be so close; I had Toronto by 12, instead of 3.
- While I had Calgary beating the Riders (by 7), nobody could have predicted the wild finish of that game.
- I was surprised by Edmonton beating BC; I had the Lions by 14.  BC is moving the ball (over 900 net yards of offence in their back-to-back losses), they are just not finishing and Lulay threw 4 key interceptions in those two games.
- I thought Hamilton would slip by Montréal; the Ti-Cats dominated.

I was 3-1 for the week, raising my overall record to 11-5 after four weeks.

Thursday

Edmonton (3-1) at Winnipeg (0-4)

Winnipeg looked a lot better last week against the Argos than they did in the first three games. RB Chad Simpson made his CFL debut and looked impressive.  He was a dynamo on several runs and was very hard to take down.  It looks like he may add a running game to the Bombers' offence.  The Bombers keep getting decimated by injuries; while they are still missing some key parts on defence, all indications are that WR Terrence Edwards will play tonight and SB Cory Watson will make his season debut. That might not be enough to mount any sustained offence against an Edmonton defence, which has proved aggressive and stingy so far this year.  They have also shown a propensity for big defensive plays, either leading to defensive scores or giving the offence good enough field position to capitalize on the turnover, if only with a field goal.  If this keeps up, Jyles and/or Joseph only have to move the ball enough to put up 15-18 points on the board to give the Esks a chance to win.

Eskimos by 6.

Friday

Toronto (2-2) at Montréal (2-2)

These two teams did not look impressive last week.  While they got the win, I thought the Argos took a step back against Winnipeg; the offence still might be a bit of a work in progress as Ray gets more an more familiar with his receivers.  They sill might be one good receiver short to properly allow Ray to air it out and expect success at every game.  Ray is facing a Montréal defence which has looked awful in the past two games. While AC is still airing it out (another 374 passing yards last week against the Ti-Cats), Brandon Whittaker, other than a 200+ yard performance in Week Two, has been MIA from the Montréal offence for most of the year.  Along with AC getting sacked and chased around regularly, this is another indication that the Als' O-line is a weak point this year. The Toronto D has been relentless and solid all year.

Of note, the Toronto offence leads the yards in net offensive yards, while the defence has given up the least yards.  Yet, the Argos are still 2-2...

This one's hard to call.  I will go with the Als by 3, in great part because of how poor the Argos looked last week against the Bombers.

Saturday

Hamilton (2-2) at Saskatchewan (3-1)

A rematch of Week One, when the Green Riders dominated the Ti-Cats.  The Ti-Cats are coming in having won two in a row (at home), while the Riders stole a win against the Lions and lost their first game of the year in last week's OT thriller against the Stamps. Post-game comments by Rider coaches and players seemed to indicate that they felt they let the game against the Stamps slip away.  I do not agree; while the Stamps came back in the fourth quarter, Saskatchewan never looked in control throughout the game.  The Riders' offence, while it looked explosive against the Ti-Cats four weeks ago, has since looked workmanlike at best. The Hamilton defence has been OK against the pass (ranked 5th in the league), but abysmal against the run, giving up 140 rushing yards per game on average.  I would expect Kory Sheets to have another big game.  The Rider defence had their hands full over the past two weeks with Travis Lulay and Kevin Glenn; Henry Burris seems to be growing more comfortable with his receivers, and could prove equally challenging. If Good Hank shows up, then the advantage goes to the Hamilton offense; I think they can generate more against the Green Rider D than the reverse.

This one may come down to special teams; both Chris Williams and Tristan Jackson have had explosive runs in the past two weeks. I think Hamilton avenges the Week One loss to the Riders and wins by 5.

BC (2-2) at Calgary (2-2)

This game features the second (BC) and third (CGY) rated defences in the league going up against the fourth (CGY) and second (BC) best offences (in yardage allowed/gained).

Similarly to the Argos, the Lions are second in the league for yards generated and least yards allowed, and they are also 2-2.  In the Lions' case, that can be attributed to a lack of finishing; they just have not been scoring to cap off drives.  That will come; Travis Lulay is too good of a QB, and should have a fair range of weapons.  However, one has to wonder with the injuries to Kierrie Johnson and Shawn Gore whether their secondary receivers are strong enough.  While Marco Ianuzzi is stepping up, Akeem Foster has been missing all year, after a promising rookie year last year, as has Arland Bruce. Bruce has been in the 29-56 catching yards range for all four games this year; 750 or so catching yards from the team's second wide-out is not enough.  Bruce is, after all, 34 years old; it seems funny to say when his teammate is the ageless (OK, 37 year-old) Geroy Simon, but the years seem to be catching up to Bruce.

Kevin Glenn looked like a Hall-of-Famer last week against the Green Riders.  If one takes away the disaster in the last few minutes against Montréal in Week Three, he has looked dominant since inheriting the starting QB reigns from Drew Tate.

Despite the potential weaknesses in their receiving corps, I see the Lions as a better-rounded team over-all than the Stamps.  Lions by 3.